EPL: Can Liverpool stop Chelsea?

A change of approach

Brendan Rodgers has a decision to make: does he instruct his side to press Chelsea aggressively and pin them back (as is his preferred style) or will he ask them to drop deeper, concede possession, and partake in a match of counter-attacking cat-and-mouse instead?

If the Liverpool manager reviews last season’s 2-0 defeat by Chelsea at Anfield, he is sure to give consideration to the latter strategy. In April Liverpool had almost 75% of the ball against Chelsea, spending most of the contest in forward areas, yet they made little headway. Jose Mourinho’s compact back four and disciplined starting XI left few gaps and no space for Liverpool to exploit in behind. It was a total shut-out.

The motivation behind a possible change in tact by Rodgers is threefold. As Liverpool discovered to their cost, few teams in Europe are more content soaking up pressure and playing on the break than Chelsea. The most effective way to find space against them is to draw them out and encourage them to play higher up the field.

Secondly, Rodgers’ men are not pressing as effectively as a team this season. Without a hardworking striker such as Luis Suarez applying intense pressure to the opponent on the ball, it has been harder for Liverpool’s midfielders to get tight to their men behind. One cannot work without the other and a side of Chelsea’s calibre are capable of scything through opponents with ease if the closing down is not cohesive as a unit.

Finally, if Liverpool lose possession inside Chelsea’s half with most of their players in advanced positions, Cesc Fabregas and Diego Costa possess the quality to hurt them with one clever run and a top-class pass.

Chelsea’s second goal against Arsenal last month was scored this way (see graphic below) and it is a ploy that I sense they will look to use at Anfield if the home side cannot resist squeezing up and pushing men forward. Playing on the shoulder of Martin Skrtel with space in behind, Costa could wreak havoc.

Recent patterns indicate that Chelsea are likely to show more ambition this time around, but Mourinho still prefers his team to sit deep and break at speed in this type of contest.

Averaging just 33% of possession away from home at the top four in 2013/14 they managed to acquire seven points. This term, in their toughest away tests so far the Blues have picked up five from a possible nine at Everton, Manchester City and Manchester United, this when having 38.2%, 41% and 48.3% of the ball respectively. So in their case, more possession has equalled fewer points.

It is not Liverpool’s way to relinquish control at Anfield but there are several compelling reasons why it may be wiser to let Chelsea have more of the ball on Saturday. When you also consider how shaky Liverpool have been at the back, the argument to sit a little deeper than usual and defend in numbers is strengthened.

Liverpool do know how to win big matches without dominating possession. When thrashing Arsenal 5-1 last season they had just a 42.7% share of the ball.

Make Sterling the main man

Given Raheem Sterling’s prowess in a floating ‘No 10’ role for club and country, it has been a surprise not to see him used in that position more often. He shone brightly in that central berth at White Hart Lane in August, but since then has not completed a full 90 minutes with the remit to patrol anywhere he wishes across the front line.

Sterling was very effective in a 4-3-3 on the left against Southampton and Everton, but has since spent most of the campaign on the right, with licence to make the occasional foray inside. He has even started as a wing-back twice during a period where he has been asked to constantly switch roles.

This has not been ideal, but the statistics suggest that Sterling is still a player on the rise. He is having more shots, creating a greater number of chances, and dribbling past players more than ever before. All Liverpool need to do is get him on the ball in dangerous areas more often.

When you compare his performances with Chelsea’s outstanding Eden Hazard and Oscar, the numbers are favorable for the Liverpool whizzkid. So imagine what he could produce if he received the same kind of service?

Bringing Sterling inside against Mourinho’s men could have the effect of preoccupying the thoughts of Chelsea’s influential midfielders Nemanja Matic and Cesc Fabregas, while also giving Chelsea’s back four something different to think about.

Whenever Sterling drives through the middle at pace or makes intelligent runs from infield to either flank, it tends to create confusion, and open up gaps. This tactical tweak might just help Liverpool unsettle Chelsea more than they did on their last visit to Anfield.

Finding a clinical edge

In terms of their attacking capacities, Liverpool and Chelsea have had a role reversal since their last encounter. Both clubs are creating a similar number of chances to last term but at the sharp end, one club has deteriorated while the other has significantly improved.

Shorn of the division’s two highest scorers last term, Liverpool have not gone forward with the same levels of energy, especially at Anfield where their goal-per-match ratio has gone from 2.8 in 2013/14 to an average of just one this season.

This lowering of the tempo has had a negative impact on the quality of chances they are creating, while the level of their finishing has also dipped.

Chelsea, meanwhile, thanks mainly to the guile of Fabregas and the class of Costa, have raised standards in both departments considerably.

source: premierleague.com